Few Things to think about coming into 2014 Seeding.
UKRAINE CRISIS – Mpls wheat is already up 33% since beginning of March. I think a lot of this has to do with the speculation that Russia will continue to cause trouble in the Ukraine and that Western leaders (not wanting to go to war) will continue with Russian embargoes that could extend to Wheat. Ukraine may possibly experience trouble exporting its crop if there is further escalation of trouble into the black sea.
USA DROUGHT AGAIN? – a lot of people are talking about lack of moisture in the USA and the potential for effecting that crop.
DELAYED SPRING ON PRAIRIES – Higher wheat prices, irregular weather, delayed seeding and higher wheat prices, will likely push Canadian farmers to seed more wheat and pull back on pulse crops in 2014. Expect lower actual seeding of pulses and higher seeding of grains than published in the April 24 Statscan report.
INDIA DEMAND – there is no doubt India demand for Canadian pulses will extend into 2015. Prices remain stronger than expected for India demanded pulses through the fall of 2014. This means demand from other markets will continue to add pressure to future prices as it arrives.
LOGISTICS – Though repeat promises, CP and CN rail are no closer to closing the backlog of railcar orders since January. There are still 40,000 cars unfulfilled by each railroad as they struggle to keep up with current demand. This week CP filled our transport requirements originally requested for February.