July 2018

July 2018

Fun with Fibonacci

Fibonacci retracement levels are depicted by taking high and low points on a chart and marking the key Fibonacci ratios of 23.6%, 38.2% and 61.8% horizontally to produce a grid. These horizontal lines are used to identify possible price reversal points.   F1, F2, and F3

Large Green Lentils #2

Support:  $18.50            Resistance  $30.00         F1 = 25.58;   F2 = 24.22;   F3 = 22.86

Current markets are struggling to break through F1,  F2 has provided support for new crop.   A breakthrough 22.50 will signal a new top resistance point in the market setting up for sub 20 grower values.   

Green Peas #2

Support = $7.48        Resistance = $9.75       F1 = $8.88;    F2 = $8.61;    F3 = $8.35 

The long term trend shows Green peas trading in a relatively tight range between $8.50 and $9.00/bu.   The calcuation suggests a price of $8.25 will signal future higher prices.   A break below $8.25 will set up prices around $7.50/bu

 

Canaryseed

Support = 18.50          Resistance = $25             F1 = $22.69            F2 = $21.98        F3= $21.26

Very little canary has moved below $21 for several years with the sweet spot to fill limited demand around $22 and farmer targets around $24.   Fibonacci calculation suggest it will remain difficult to go below $21.

Red Lentils #2

Support = $20        Resistance = $14       F1 = $17.67;    F2 = $16.96;    F3 = $16.26

Reds are moving off the charts in a bad way for farmers due to duties from India not allowing market forces to do their work and absorb excess supplies at lower prices.   We have not broken 16 in a decade.   Even with an estimated resistance value of $14,  the calculation suggests that we are at a bottom of the market and should stay here for a long time.