November 2016

Welcome to November.  It is what it is.   For us in the north, it is usually the beginning of a long settling in.  A period of reflection and planning for the future.   Normally, producers and exporters have taken stock of their positions and we start to get a good idea how the future of the crop will play out through the new year.

Why is this year is different?  Here are two reasons.

  • As of October 24:   21% Mustard, 3% Lentils, 75% Chickpeas, 50% Canaryseed, 47% Flaxseed, 20% Canola, 19% Spring Wheat, 23% Durum, 24% Oats, and 11% of Barley are STILL IN THE FIELD.
  • Price spreads between grades and within grades are huge.   If we just look at grower prices spread for large green lentils.    Laird 2: 50-60 cents; Laird X3: 38-48 cents; Laird 3: 32-42 cents.

The trade is frustrated that producers are not participating and allowing new business done.   In this environment, I do not see why producers would be rushing to make these decisions.   There are unsold crops in the bin.   That is for sure.  Trying to pry grain from producers who have one eye to their unharvested fields and the on a scatter chart of prices.   It is understandable they will need to defer the settling in period for another month.   See you then.