January 2016

Well that was interesting.   Very difficult to grasp the trajectory of the market amidst the volatility of the month.   Today I can only settle for a reflection.   Theme of the past 60 days has been one of overreaching markets.  Like the market is working in a new catchers mitt.   FX 1.33-1.45.   Oil 44-28.   Lairds 60 – 70 cents.   Reds 60 – 53 cents.   Yellows 11-13.50.   Even New crop was testing limits.   Lairds 33-40 cents.   New Crop Reds 32- 38 cents and back again.       We have not quite found the sweet spot.   As we progress daily away from these dramatic moves, I think the markets are settling into new ranges.   It would be a mistake to assume the trends last forever.   While I do not expect major reversals.    I would expect us to move into tighter range trading.   Especially in our special crop markets, where growers are largely settled in their old and new crop positions and are flush with cash.   It is going to be hard to make the producers budge from their position too quickly.   It will take the reality of seeding and harvesting events around the world to break the ranges and send markets in a new direction.