OBSERVATIONS FOR JULY
1) -> Growers in Canada are sellers of small amounts, but are not in trouble. They can easily manage current stocks. Everyone knows acres for 2013 are down 30%, carryout is low, and weather has been uncertain.
2) -> Red lentil bids and demand are remaining very firm for October from big companies. Equivalent to $750 CIF
3) -> My expectation is too see a very uncomfortable market in July while these problems move through the pipeline.
4) -> I expect to see most markets consume previous imported products at discounted prices (due to higher importing costs, and additional consumption during Ramadan) Global market prices should start improving during the second week of August.
5) -> In the middle of August, everyone will be coming back to the market with limited stocks available in their domestic markets and at the grower level. Traders will need to improve prices get growers to sell. Growers will be much more resistant because a) red lentils are strong (25 cents for red vrs 22 cents for green) ; b) green acres are very reduced.