June 25, Victoria. Today’s seeding report arrived and departed today without turning too many heads. Here is a quick breakdown for those of you who missed it:
Laird Lentils: 820,000 acres, down 31 % from last year. More importantly, the carryover that has plagued the market for the last few years has finally been cleaned up. Unfortunately, export markets have not been successful in holding onto price gains. This has left the market in a fairly steady state. Eventually lower supply will win out. Expect prices to gradually rise through 2014.
Red Lentils: 1,200,000 acres, up 30 % from last year. With virtually zero carryover from 2012 and limited competition from other producing countries, I expect reds to stay strong though 2014. It will be a tough market to get in and out of. Crop could easily sell out again in 2014.
Green Peas: 455,000 acres, up 13.5 % from 2012. Green Peas have been sold out for months. Though new crop prices have stabilized, look out if we see quality problems (bleaching) at harvest time. We will be back at record levels.
Yellow Peas: 2,625,000 acres, down 10% from 2012. Limited Carryover. Growers have shown their disappointment in financial returns from Yellow Peas in previous years. The lower acres should provide support for gradually rising prices through 2014.
Canary: 165,000 acres, down 45% from 2012. While there remains some canary in the pipeline, prices are going to have to increase to reduce demand proportionally to supply. $1200 canary anyone? Mexican demand may have something to say about that.
Turbulent weather and currency markets are doing their best to offset each other. It will be difficult to see anyone take strong positions given the lack of carry-out stocks, weak buying markets, and uncertain yields due to messy weather around the world. For now, better to wait and see what the coming months bring.
Have a Great Week!